Cold War Schelling - A Game of Chicken!

Dr Thomas Schelling was a different sort of Nobel-prize winning economist –let’s call him a ‘hatke’ economist - who worked on the fascinating science of game theory and its utility in the cold war and in nuclear strategy. He presented an unusual option in cold war negotiation – which remains as debated as it is controversial – that went as follows:

One side in a negotiation can strengthen its position by narrowing, not expanding, the options available to it. 

Imagine that there are two drivers driving towards each other on a collision course (I am getting nervous writing about it!).  One must swerve, or both may die in the crash.  But if one driver swerves and the other does not, the one who swerved will be called a ‘chicken’, a coward, the one who blinked first. 

     Your first reaction is likely to be, ‘…but this will never happen.  Humans love their lives way too much.’

Well, sorry to disappoint you, but it happened for half a century after the Second World War, when the two superpowers drove towards each other.  It happens – with lower consequences – in traffic jams, when people refuse to move and glare with hostility.  It happens in conflicts at home and at work. 

So, it happens. 

The fear of being labelled a chicken triggers the aggression (both emotions emanating from the amygdala).

So, ol’ Schelling suggested that one option could be that one of the drivers who is hurtling towards the other could rip the steering wheel from the steering column and brandish it so that his opponent can see that he no longer controls the car.

Have you done this? (no, not while driving, but while negotiating….)