Well, it turns out that most of us are. For instance, Rod Kramer of the Stanford Business School found that 68% of the MBA students in his negotiation class predicted that their bargaining outcomes would fall in the upper 25% of the class!
When our home was being constructed, I asked the contractor - who has two decades of experience - how long it would take. Ten months, he asserted, with complete confidence, despite my reiteration of the question.
It took fifteen months, with a hopelessly rushed job at the end, for which we are still paying the price, years later .😼
Overconfidence is a bias that is now well studied and recognised (except in those who are overconfident!). We tend to minimise the probability of poor outcomes and emphasise the reverse, the probability of perfect or semi-perfect outcomes.
ps: The difference between belief, optimism and overconfidence is something I am learning all the time......
.Harvard Law School has four short ways - that I strongly believe in - to minimise the overconfidence bias in negotiating and decision making:
1. Collect credible information about the other side
2. Consider the opposite: why you could be wrong, or your assumptions incorrect
3. Find a devil's advocate (and make her feel comfortable about criticising your idea or plan)
4. Do not be afraid to ask (even for information that you assume the other party will not provide you).
Read the one-page note, which expands on these points, here.
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